Resolved my first manifold market, on the rather mundane and meta question of whether Manifold Markets will provide a non-Google login by April (no, they didn't). I took the liberty to resolve it 3 hours too early (the official end of the month is at midnight when I usually sleep) but I think that's acceptable by Manifold Markets' relaxed standards. During the month and a half of the market's lifetime it behaved pretty much as expected - initially predicting high probability (driven by many hopeful users) and converging towards single digit as the deadline approached with no sign that the feature will be released.
